The Guessing Game

Thailand's political drama veered towards farce last Friday morning as police commandos played out a comedy of errors in a botched attempt to ensnare key leaders of the red shirt movement at the SC Park Hotel in Bangkok.

The police operation took a wrong turn when overly polite officers, apparently keen to avoid damaging any doors, asked hotel staff for a master key. Red shirt sympathisers raised the alarm and supporters soon began gathering at the hotel.

By the time the police were ready to pounce, a paunchy looking Arisman Pongruangrong, one of the red shirts' more militant leaders, was already enacting a dramatic, if rather clumsy, James Bond-style exit; lowering himself down a rope from his hotel balcony in full view of the media and a cheering throng of red shirt supporters.

For their grand finale the red shirts succeeded in capturing several policemen, including a colonel and major general, who were whisked to their protest site at Rajprasong where they were paraded on stage before being released.

The fumbled sting operation, while amusing, was yet another curious episode in this ongoing political drama.

How did police commandos manage to make so many errors and then allow their prey to slip between their fingers in full view of the public? Were they really trying?

And how did Thailand's military with all the modern equipment, training and resources at its disposition fail to dislodge a motivated but relatively poorly armed band of protesters - leaving us with the tragedy of April 10th that cost 24 lives and left more than 800 injured.

True Abhisit's government is on the back foot. True he's facing an intransigent, broad and well funded opposition. True Thailand's army and police are perhaps not the best trained in the world. But even so many events of recent days and weeks just don't compute.

Ask almost any observer here, from cab drivers up to political anaylysts, how the current crisis might play out and you will be met with a political diatribe, a blizzard of vague theories or, most likely, a shrug of the shoulders and an honest "I've got no idea."

Though many here view the future with foreboding, nobody knows where this crisis is headed.

The government is determined to cling to power, one might surmise, because it fears stepping down now would be a prelude to defeat in elections. It seem likely too that with the Prime Minister ensconced in a military base, he has army firmly behind him. Or is the reverse true? The Prime Minister is a hostage to the military, a mere puppet?

Does the army have its own agenda? Is a coup in the offing? Do the elites, discreetly funding the protests while scripting its storyline, know how they would like this battle for power to end?

Amidst the farce, the rumours and the speculation, however, there are some constants that help us navigate through the confusion.

We know, for example, real and bitter divisions in Thai society exist; born out of inequalities exacerbated by and largely ignored during Thailand's economic miracle.

We know too that, for all his faults and failures, Thaksin shone a spotlight on the woes of Thailand's underclass and succeeded in winning deep affection and support among many of them. He is a potent force behind the red shirt movement: its patron and perhaps its master strategist.

It is also clear that, while there is broad consensus that Thailand's political system needs reform, opinion is split over what shape the reform should take.

Most important of all are the very real passions that surround the question of Thailand's much revered monarchy. Many here, who have grown up to view King Bhumipol, 82, as a guiding light and stabilizing force,fear the vaccuum his passing will leave.

The red shirt movement, which has shunned images of the King, is increasingly being seen as a threat to the monarchy; a challenge that could be met with a violent and angry backlash from pro-royalists.

The economic cost of the crisis is also beyond debate. With each passing day the wounds to Thailand's once ebullient economy multiply.

For the moment, each side is holding its ground, staring their opponents down, planning their strategies and maneuvering their forces. Thailand is at a crossroads: will the opposing factions pull back from the brink and negotiate a compromise? or will they go on the offensive, deepening the conflict and raising the spectre of a civil war?

At this point, your guess is as good as mine.