Imagining Thailand's Future Without the T Words

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The T words, Thaksin and terrorism, have come to dominate political dialogue and analysis here. Their use has become so widespread as to mask the deeper structural causes of Thailand's crisis.

Lets start with terrorism.

For some time now the Thai government has been referring to elements within the Red Shirt movement as terrorists. Yesterday the government issued an arrest warrant for former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on charges of terrorism.

In classifying Red Shirts as terrorists, the government clearly wishes to delegitimise the movement, both locally and internationally.

While this may seem a logical step to some, in the wake of the destruction and violence witnessed in Bangkok in recent weeks, to many Red Shirt sympathisers it only emphasises feelings of exclusion and injustice.

Treating Red Shirts as terrorists adds weight to claims that the government is applying double standards, one of the key gripes among rank and file Red Shirt supporters.

To many Red Shirts it is a glaring injustice, symptomic of a system that discriminates against them, that yellow shirt leaders responsible for occupying Government House and for closing down the country's two international airports remain unpunished.

And then there's Thaksin Shinawatra, the biggest T word of all.

Thailand's obsession with the exiled former Prime Minister is such that he has become the spectre that haunts every political debate, the seeming be all and end all of Thailand's current woes.

A recent op-ed by prominent Thai journalist Karuna Buakamsri published in the International Herald Tribune described Thaksin as "the fault line that has fractured our country."

Ironically in placing Thaksin at the heart of the crisis, many analsysts and the government itself have become unwitting victims of Thaksin's spin. It is as if the government and intelligentsia were themselves being manipulated by the man they have often accused of manipulating Thailand's 'gullible', 'poorly educated' underclass.

For in emphasising Thakin's role and importance, in peppering every analysis and official announcement with his name, Thaksin's visibility is increased while the space he occupies in the nation's political psyche expands, and this even as he languishes in distant exile.

There are those, thankfully, who see beyond the T words.

Anand Panyarachun, a former Prime Minister and one of the architects behind the reform orientated constitution of 1997, outlined Thailand's challenges in an article entitled 'A Shared Future' without once referring to either Thaksin or terrorism. (click here to read full article: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/05/24/opinion/A-Shared-Future-30130056.html)

In today's Thailand it was a laudable feat, evidence perhaps that Khun Anand is one of the few Thai leaders with sufficient neutrality, wisdom and moral authority to guide Thailand out of its current predicament.

In his article Khun Anand speaks of the dangers of "harbouring hatred", of the need to close "the deep and widening social divide", of Thailand experiencing a "political awakening" which has put the nation at "a point of no return."

Thailand's true challenge is not to rid the nation of so-called terrorists nor of the threat posed by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. It is, as Khun Anand writes, "to engage in a process of dialogue, which recognizes and respects the differences, interests and values of all concerned parties."

The government of Abhisit Vejajiva would do well to listen to Khun Anand's advice.

It should shift its focus away from chasing terrorists, suppressing dissentng voices and bemoaning the evil influence of former Prime Minsiter Thaksin.

Instead, as Khun Anand points out, it should "see the empowerment of the rural and impoverished sectors of our electorate as a critical and necessary step for the development of Thailand's democratic system."

Thaksin surely has much to answer for but, as Khun Anand so wisely leads us to understand, he should not be seen as the essence of Thailand's problems, even if he was the catalyst that brought them to the surface.

Thailand's current situation should not be seen as a conflict to be won or lost. Instead, as Khun Anand points out, it should be seen as an opporunity to be seized.

Scrubbing Away Memories and Covering The Fires

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For 'curfew' the French say 'couvre feu'. Literally it means to cover the fire.

The Thai government's curfew feels very much like the French version of the term: an attempt to cover the fire, or perhaps hide it.

It reflects a fear that while the government may have succeeded in snuffing out the Red Shirt protest at Rajprasong, the order it has imposed may be as fragile as it is combustible.

Many Bangkokians would rather wash the memories of these past two months away and move on.

It would be comforting to believe that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajiva, ever the unruffled, ever the reassuring, has dealt with the 'problem' and life will now return to normal - whatever normal may be in this city of mysterious yet charming madness.

On Rajadamri Avenue yesterday, where days earlier soldiers and protesters had fought, where bloodied corpses had lain, a different kind of army was at work.

Platoons of cheerful volunteers, wielding brooms and brushes, could be seen scrubbing frantically at streets and sidewalks, desperately trying to remove any last trace of the Red Shirt protest. It was as much about purging the city of dark and violent memories as it was about a literal clean-up.

Like a dazed boxer gathering himself from the floor, dusting himself down and preparing to fight another round, Bangkok is already regaining its old momentum. The city's inimitable energy has begun to flow again.

Familiar traffic jams have resumed their slow, jolting procession through valleys of skyscrapers. The sidewalk vendors are trundling back to their allotted spots. Most important of all the shoppers have begun, gingerly, to reclaim their malls.

Apart from a few visible scars, where fires set by retreating Red Shirts still smoulder, Bangkok has begun to look just as it always has. One could even detect a smile, here and there.

But the kind of trauma caused by the intense street violence which roiled through this city in recent weeks can't be erased with a broom and some disinfectant. Thais can put on a brave face - something they're famous for. They can tell the world it's OK now, that the 'terrorists' are being rounded up, that pretty soon it will be business as usual in the Land of Smiles.

It would be tempting to do that - to pretend. To do so, however, would be to mistake order for peace, to mistake the government's victory at Rajprasong for the reality that the Red Shirts' losses and their brusque eviction may well have lit even fiercer fires among their ranks.

The danger now would be to apply the literal meaning of the French term for curfew and to simply cover the fires which are still burning.

In moves to imprison and stifle the Red Shirt movement, there are ominous signs that this government intends not to engage the Red Shirts but to suppress them, not to extinguish the fires of discontent through compromise and reconciliation but merely to hide those flames from view.

Tranforming Order into Peace

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Just over two months after the Red Shirts of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) began a protest calling for the dissolution of parliament and fresh elections, the Thai government has at last succeeded in restoring order.

It came at a price.

More than 80 people were killed and over 1,300 injured during clashes between government security forces and protesters.

Swathes of Bangkok, one of the world's most popular tourist destinations and the bustling epicenter of Thailand's high-octane economy, were transformed into battlefields.

Tonight Bangkok is under curfew. Heavily armed soldiers still patrol in 'sensitive' areas. Key public transport networks remain closed.

Around the city blackened buildings, pocked with the scars of gunfire, still smoulder after angry demonstrators rampaged Wednesday, looting shops and torching whatever they could. Department stores, cinemas, banks and even a TV station were attacked. In all more than 30 fires were lit.

If the mood isn't celebratory, one senses relief among Bangkokians that the darkest, wildest days of violence are now behind them. Public transport will resume limited services on Sunday when the curfew is also due to be lifted. Most people in Bangkok should return to work normally on Monday.

The barricades which served as frontlines in pitched battles between troops and protesters, and were vivid symbols of the divisions behind this crisis, have been dismantled. And the Red Shirt protesters, who had camped out in one of the capital's swishest commercial districts, have now either gone gone home or been arrested.

As Thailand begins to count the cost of its worst civil unrest in modern history, thoughts are beginning to turn to the future.

Though the fires have been extinguished and the protests quelled, there is concern that the anger and frustration which pushed Bangkok to near anarchy continue to burn.

In a televised speech a day after the violence, Abhisit vowed his government would seek reconciliation. "We will help each other rebuild our nation for the happiness of all," he declared.

He will need to be very serious about that challenge if he is to transform the order he has imposed into lasting peace.

Though their leaders have surrendered, many Red Shirts have said they are determined to fight on. At this point it is still unclear what form their struggle will take, but there are fears of more violence in the weeks and months ahead.

The spectre of an armed conflict, and the crippling instability it implies, is a real possibility. Although most of the Red Shirt protesters were expressing legitimate opposition to the government, the movement's most extreme elements are known to be armed.

The immediate challenge for Abhisit's government, amidst the bitterness and fury generated by so many deaths and injuries, is to build trust, credibility and a semblance of neutrality. The Prime Minister must demonstrate that he has the strength to step away from narrow political interests and govern for the good of the entire nation.

Caught in powerful political cross currents as he navigates between coalition partners and his military backers (to whom he owes his political survival), Abhisit will need to show that his government intends to quickly address gaping economic inequalities.

His Finance Minister, Korn Chatikavanij, revealed yesterday that Thailand has "consistent current account surpluses, record foreign exchange reserves and good fiscal space." It is imperative the government now use these resources to implement policies that will alleviate the effects of falling rice prices and a drought in parts of the Northeast, factors that have fanned discontent in disadvantaged rural areas from where the Red Shirt movement draws much of its support.

Abhisit must also show a willingness to tolerate political opposition that operates within the law and that he is prepared, as soon as possible, to announce a firm election date and subject his government to the scrutiny of the ballot box.

Ironically, Abhisit's best chance of building popular support lie in policies that will antagonise some of his closest allies.

The Prime Minister needs, for example, to take legal action against leaders of the Yellow Shirt movement (also known as the People's Alliance for Democracy or PAD) responsible, in 2008, for a three-month-long occupation of Government House and for shutting down the nation's international airports.

In doing so he would send a clear signal of personal courage and political neutrality.

Such a move would also expose him to dangerous political cross-fire, especially when one considers that his current Foreign Minister was a prominent figure among the Yellow shirts and supported their occupation of the airports.

By arresting Yellow Shirt leaders guilty of crimes no less serious than their Red Shirt counterparts, Abhisit would be showing a willingness to apply the law with equality and would undermine one of the Red Shirts' key criticisms of him: that in arresting its leaders while ignoring those of the Yellow shirts his government is guilty of double standards.

While Prime Minister Abhisit may be eloquent and well meaning, and though his government may have the material resources to impose order, the future stability of Thailand, and perhaps ultimately any hope for peace here, reposes on his government's desire to restore its moral, as opposed to physical, authority and legitimacy.

If in putting an end to the Red Shirt protests the government intends merely to affirm its power then it has simply won one battle in what could turn out to be a long and bitter war.

The Beast Let Loose

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The sun shines on Bangkok this morning. Yet the 'beast' ranges free. Mobs looting, burning, fighting, killing. The frightening force of hatred, frustration and revenge let loose.

Though we are bathed in beautiful light, our city is cloaked in the darkness of violence. We are witnessing Thailand's blackest hours.

At dawn armoured personnel carriers rumbled towards the red barricades - a tangle of bamboo, razor wire and tires laid along the edge of Rama IV road, in the heart of Bangkok.

Columns of troops huddled nervously behind the hulking, clumsy vehicles as the army began its long anticipated, and much feared, crackdown.

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Soon the air was crackling with the sound of gunfire and explosions. Within minutes reports of the first victims came in. Limp bodies, eyes staring blankly into eternity, began appearing on our screens. Thais killing Thais.

Against a backdrop of spiraling violence government spokesmen, surly and expressionless, almost apologetic-sounding, told an apprehensive nation - without the slightest hint of irony - that they were bringing the situation under control.

They sat before a blank white backdrop strangely unadorned of the Thai flag or the habitual emblems of royal authority. That blank backdrop seemed ominous; hinting at an empty-seeming future.

Shortly after, leaders of the Red Shirt protest, jittery and grim, announced they were surrendering. They asked their supporters, who had stood with them for over 60 days, to go home. Their original demand - for the government to dissolve parliament and hold fresh elections - went unmentioned. They surely understood, as did all those who watched them, that Thailand was beyond talk of politics.

Was this a victory for the government? I suppose it was, of sorts. The Red leaders had been arrested. The protest at Rajprasong had been dispersed. Mission accomplished.

As the Red Shirt protesters fled Rajprasong and their leaders were hustled into the nearby Police headquarters, the words of a journalist friend came back to me. "If they end it with an attack on the protesters at Rajprasong," he said, "it will be just the beginning."

And now Thailand burns. Mobs have attacked and set fire to municipal buildings in the northeastern provinces of Khon Kaen, Ubol Ratchathani, Mukdaharn, Nakorn Ratchasima and Udon Thani. In the northern capital of Chiang Mai there are reports that soldiers have fired live rounds at red shirt demonstrators.

In the capital the air is thick with the acrid black smoke of burning tires. It hangs like the dark clouds of a gathering storm. The scenes are apocalyptic. Many of Bangkok's glitzy malls, temples of the joyful consumerism that became a hallmark of life in this city, are aflame. Banks are being torched. The media itself is under attack.

Athit Perawongmetha/Getty Images

How is it that so many Thais should yield to such wanton destruction of their own capital, once a gleaming emblem of this nation's success?

Perhaps those burning the banks have little need for them. They are among the legions who live in debt. Perhaps those destroying Bangkok's swanky department stores do so because they never had the means to shop there. Those venting their fury against various symbols of State authority feel, perhaps, that successive governments have paid only passing attention to their needs.

While it would be reassuring to believe that the Red Shirts were merely a rent-a-mob acting at the behest of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his cronies, the roots of this crisis reach beyond the elite benefactors of the Red Shirts' protests.

In order to build a political constituency, Thaksin and his proxies shone a spotlight on huge economic disparities, stoking latent frustrations among a majority of Thais who have enjoyed only a tiny share of the spectacular wealth created here in recent decades. They peeled away a thin veneer of national unity to reveal gaping inequalities that have now divided the Thai nation in two.

As darkness falls on this tragic day, the fires that have been lit will burn and multiply through the night. Tomorrow we will awake to a new dawn. The sun will shine again but I have a feeling that Thailand and its capital will never be the same.

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The Parallel Dimension

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REUTERS/Adrees Latif

Perhaps this is the reality of civil war.

Life in Bangkok has entered a parallel dimension. It's like looking at one's reflection in a crooked mirror: everything is there but suddenly it looks strange and different.

We wake up in the morning to the usual blazing sunshine, to the habitual heat and to reports of last night's death toll. Time is measured out in news updates informing us of the latest skirmish, the latest wounded, the latest hot spots.

Our screens are filled with images of soldiers, guns, black smoke, protesters and the glum, expressionless faces of government spokesmen who punctuate our days with monotone assurances that they are bringing the situation under control, that they are just doing their jobs. "Not to worry," they chant, "we don't mean for anybody to get hurt."

How quickly the shocking has become familiar and our senses anesthetized to the tragedy represented by each death and injury. Forty lives lost and over one thousand people injured. As I write news breaks on twitter that a 10 year old boy has been killed by gunfire. Minutes later a grenade lands in a police station. Human disasters soon to be lost in the statistics.

In today's Bangkok the difference between normalcy and life threatening violence can be a few hundred meters up or down a street...or a wrong turn. The city is breaking into pieces. Suddenly you find yourself thinking about the safest route to take. There are zones: red zones, no go zones, safe zones, live fire zones.

The future used to be something one planned for with confidence. Nobody saw these dark days in their crystal balls. Coups yes. Sporadic political turbulence for sure. But a meltdown that could degenerate into civil war?

Witness the deadly lure of power, the politician's ultimate high. Unbound by rules or arbiters, Thailand's leaders will go to any length to obtain or retain it. It's an "I win you lose" game with no middle ground.

There was a time when power struggles were played out in parliamentary debates, in shady corridors of influence and through elections. I remember those days fondly now. If there weren't quite rules there were at least agreed upon limits. And there was at least one ultimate arbiter to whom the nation could turn when the power brokers got out of control.

Today those self-set boundaries have evaporated, the facades of civility have fallen and we are left with the brutal law of force. Bangkok, erstwhile icon of Asia's progress, now looks more and more like the jungle from which it rose.


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Of Barricades and Madness

From a distance the barricades, bristling with bamboo pikes, resemble tousled oversized porcupines ambling across a street.

Close up they look more like urban art installations: chaotic yet carefully arranged sculptures assembled from rags, bamboo, razor wire and old rubber tires. A revolutionary art project of sorts and a direct, almost poetic, expression of the differences splitting Thailand down the middle.

In reality, of course, the barricades are more than poetry. They are battle lines, frontiers even, separating ‘Red Bangkok’ from the rest of the city. The rags and tires aren’t there for art; they are to be burned. The ‘porcupine’ barricades will then become a wall of fire.

“You go Iraq?” joke Bangkok taxi drivers if you give a destination near the barricades - where soldiers are now entrenched behind sandbags. The drivers, like me, have never actually been to Iraq. But they’ve seen the pictures on TV and can’t help but make the comparison.

Like Iraq there are bombs. Seventy attacks, mainly with M-79 grenades, have been reported in or around the city this year. In April alone 27 people were killed as a result of political violence and more than 900 were injured.

Unlike Iraq Bangkok’s camouflaged combat troops, clad in heavy flak jackets, full metal helmets and laden with weapons, patrol in opulent, skyscraper-lined business districts. They share their war zone with polite-looking office workers in white shirts and with elegant women mincing along in thigh hugging miniskirts.

It’s more surreal than real.

On Patpong, one of Bangkok’s red light districts, a squad of soldiers, surly and bored, stands guard. A few meters away a bar offers S and M. Girls touting for custom hover at the entrance. They smack passers-by with bamboo rods, enticingly. Two different kinds of menace side-by-side: one playful, the other less so.

Scenes as twisted and as quirky as the barricades themselves; barricades that seem to grow more and more tangled by the day, reflecting the growing chaos as this crisis deepens.

One senses a loss of innocence in this city once defined by its smiles, its sense of fun and its penchant for a party.

In spite of the traffic jams, the hassles, the corruption and the pollution Bangkok, for all its less-than-innocent naughtiness, retained a certain ‘lightness’, a refusal to be serious. A French friend and longtime resident compares Bangkok to a ‘jardin des enfants’. He is right. There has always been a youthful playfulness.

In the shadow of violent street battles now raging in the city, however, the glint in Bangkok’s eye has dulled. The city no longer sparkles. It is the dark side that shines now.

Has Bangkok gone mad? Or was the madness always there, waiting to burst free?

Photo by Athit Perawongmetha/Getty Images

Behind the calm smiles, the well-ordered queues, the gleaming shopping malls, amidst the chaos one has long sensed a lurking, sometimes menacing, schizophrenia - a duality fed by the many contradictions which, till now, passed for normal.

Today the schizophrenia no longer lurks. It rages wild. The contradictions, once tamed by tolerance, have broken off their uneasy marriage and are fighting openly in the streets.

The stifling heat might have something to do with the madness. For those sleeping at the protest sites ‘cool’ is a distant concept. Boiling is the reality – both emotionally and physically.

In the air conditioned towers of logic, Western analysts who dare to enter the maze of Thai politics soon find themselves disorientated by endless blind alleys. Understanding is the mirage. Just when it starts to make sense, just when you think you’ve pinned it down something strange happens and it slips away from you, again.

Hidden beneath so many layers of propaganda, with so much deception and shadow play it is hard to filter fact from fiction. Tragedy, betrayal, suspense, murder and even farce are the ingredients of this ever twisting drama.

While one senses a desire on all sides to reach for something better, a desire to see the country somehow survive the terrible shock of the King’s eventual passing, an unseemly and bloody power struggle is poisoning what should be a great opportunity: to usher in a new era of reform.

The most worrying barricades I now see around me are those being erected in people’s hearts. We are witnessing the dark side of Thailand’s mysterious, captivating, sometimes terrifying, passion.