Thai Constitutional Court Forces a Timely Interlude

In the latest act of this bizarre political drama, Thailand's constitutional court ruled Tuesday to disband three of the country's governing political parties for electoral fraud.

The verdict forced the dissolution of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat's Palang Prachachon Party (PPP) or People's Power Party. Somchai, brother in law of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and 59 other MPs have been banned from politics for five years.

The decision was heralded as a 'victory' by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). On hearing the news, many of yellow-clad demonstrators occupying Suvarnabhumi International Airport broke down in tears.

In a surreal example of the disconnect between the PAD's single-minded commitment to its goals and the massive economic damage inflicted by its airport shutdowns, one of its leaders climbed onto stage and asked demonstrators to "please make sure you don't damage the airport facilities." And this while the nation's economy lay in smoking ruins all around.

As images of the PAD dismantling their barricades flashed across the nation's television screens millions of Thais breathed a sigh of relief.

If many are relieved to have a break from the relentless haranguing of the PAD, few doubt that this is little more than an interlude.

The timing of the courts' decision, just three days before the King's birthday, left almost no space for pro-government supporters to vent their frustration at a verdict many see as highly politicised.

Members of the disbanded parties have been busy forming new parties with new names. If they can muster enough seats, which is not yet clear, the current ruling coalition has every intention of forming a new government and naming a new Prime Minister from its ranks. A parliamentary session to vote on the appointment of a new Prime Minister could take place as early as next week.

If a new Prime Minister is appointed from the ranks of the existing ruling coalition, complete with its renamed parties, few doubt that the the PAD will object and that its yellow-clad army will once again be marching in the streets of Bangkok.

In this scenario the country will remain unstable. The dynamics of the crisis, and the polarisation it has engendered, will remain unaltered.

Pro government supporters now often referred to as the 'red shirts' have, till now, stayed clear of direct confrontation with the 'yellow shirts' of the PAD (barring one violent incident in September). But with public anger at the economic damage wrought by the PAD's airport occupations running high, the potential for violent clashes between these two groups is very real.

At a time when Thais are bereft of a unifying leader able to navigate through this crisis, a great deal of attention will be paid to the King's birthday speech tomorrow in which he traditionally delivers advice to the nation's leaders. His stature and the respect he inspires appears to be the only force capable of, temporarily at least, putting the lid on the explosive tensions threatening this nation's future.

Tragic Comedy

It's hard to know if one should laugh or cry. Thailand's crisis has taken on the air of a black comedy.

Two days ago police officers sat down with the leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) a minority movement that has for months occupied Government House and for the past 7 days the nation's two main airports.

The purpose of their meeting?

To discuss improved security for the demonstrators who have been the target of repeated grenade attacks resulting in scores of injuries, some serious.

Press pause. Improved security for the demonstrators?

Yes Thailand's police force is now sitting down with the leaders of a movement that illegally controls some of the nation's most essential infrastructure.

Instead of arresting the PAD's leaders and clearing the airports of protesters, Thailand's police force is discussing ways to improve security for PAD protesters.

Yesterday PAD supporters were allowed to leave the protest site at Government house and move to the airports occupied by their fellow demonstrators. The police and security forces did nothing to stem this migration which will greatly swell the numbers holding the airports, rendering the task of dislodging them even more problematic.

Meanwhile, electricity continues to flow to the airports. Air conditioners continue to cool the main terminal building at Suvarnabhumi International Airport; lest the protesters holed up there suffer any discomfort. Suvarnabhumi has become a roomy dormitory for PAD protesters who show absolutely no sign of moving out.

By contrast, approximately 250,000 international travelers must endure the chaos of U Tapao the military airport, designed for some 400 passengers per day, that is now the scene of tumult as tens of thousands of frustrated and anxious travelers, innocent victims of this black comedy, cram into its facilities. Others must travel up to 10 hours by bus to reach Phuket airport in the south, another alternative exit point.

How can one make sense of a protest movement that in its attempts to overthrow an elected government and install a new political process, is prepared to scuttle the very ship in which its supporters, and all Thais, must sail in the months and years to come?

For the actions of the PAD, however honorable their motives may be, are scuttling Thailand's once healthy economy. Investors are fleeing. Exports are literally rotting. Tourists are canceling holidays as fast as they can. The lifeblood of this economy is draining away.

Adding to the absurdity, and adding more dark news to the crisis, the UK's daily Telegraph this week announced that Thailand's was the 7th most dangerous place on earth. Little matter that it is surely more dangerous to walk the streets of London late on a Friday night. The damage has been done. It will take Thailand many, many months, if not years, to recover from the economic wounds inflicted by the current impasse.

The government, for its part, must share the blame for this disaster. It has had numerous opportunities to put a stop to the protests. Yet the PAD, strangely, has been allowed to expand its activities virtually unchallenged. The government, underscoring its own weakness, continues to hide, fearful and cowed, in the northern capital of Chiang Mai; unwilling to confront head-on a crisis which it bears the responsibility of resolving.

Such behaviour is stretching the very definition of government. At present, Thailand does not appear to be governed in any 'normal' sense of the word. Clearly, powerful forces are at work but among these the elected government does not, apparently, wield sufficient influence to deploy such basic tools of state as the police and army.

Which brings us to the role of the judiciary. Here again, Thailand's crisis is illustrating that traditional frames of reference no longer fit. The judiciary, theoretically a neutral force, has become a political football.

In 2001, the constitutional court controversially ruled in favour of Thaksin, then accused of illegal hiding assets. Few doubted his culpability but at that time Thaksin was heralded as the Nation's saviour and the ruled paved the way for him to become Prime Minister. Many believed the courts had yielded to the political current of that time.

Today, the currents are flowing in a different direction. Having already convicted Thaksin and his wife on separate counts, the judiciary will today announce its verdict in electoral fraud cases against three political parties who are members of the current ruling (misnomer?) coalition - including the main coalition party the Palang Prachachon Party (PPP).

Most observers believe the decision will be against the defendants and that these three parties will be dissolved, effectively making it impossible for the PPP and its Prime Minister, Somchai Wongsawat, to remain in power.

Observers suggest that the judiciary through its apparent determination to marginalise, by indictment, Thaksin and the tools through which he continues to influence political life here (namely the PPP party) are implementing a kind of 'judicial coup' using what remains of the courts' legitimacy to open the way for a new government; one that would likely be more to the liking of the PAD and its supporters.

In some ways, even if the balance of power is shifted through a 'judicial coup', this will be just another act in this tragic comedy. For the dynamics that are the ingredients of this dark and increasingly absurd drama will remain as present and as powerful as ever. Only vision and leadership, compromise and conciliation, can now dampen the passion that is burning of both sides of Thailand's political divide.

But wait...There is perhaps one other force that might make a difference. What if the 400,000 passengers now stranded in Thailand were to simply turn up at Suvarnabhumi airport? It is hard to imagine that such a tidal wave of stressed, tired and frustrated passengers could not dislodge the demonstrators. It could be the first instance of 'Passenger Power' altering the political course of nation. It would be a turn no less bizarre than any other in this incomprehensible drama.